Since it's pretty much the only interesting division in baseball right now (besides the NL and AL Central where all the teams are terrible), the AL East has 3 contenders and probably 3 of the best 4 teams in baseball. Unfortunately only two of those three teams are going to make it to the postseason.
At the unofficial midseason, here's what Boston, Tampa Bay and New York need to do to finish it out.
Tampa Bay:
The good news for the Rays is that they can only get better. They've played well under their potential and they've been hurt by inconsistent starting pitching by Kazmir, Price and Sonnanstine. Jeff Niemann has stepped in to become one of the best #5 starters in the game, however, and Sonnanstine has been demoted, and Kazmir has regained his form, if his last 3 starts are any indication. Price's problems are the same that have plagued Kaz the past two years, though, and as long as he can find a balance between "walk everyone on the team" and "put the ball right down the middle," he should be fine: his stuff is too good to fall into obscurity.
Huge years by Ben Zobrist, Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett and Evan Longoria have bailed out the team's inconsistent pitching. They have the best run differential in the majors, the best OBP, and by far the best baserunning team. The bullpen is also extremely solid and one of the best in baseball. Bullpen ace JP Howell has proven to be a top 5 reliever in the game and anyone who believes that a closer is necessary for a quality bullpen just needs to look at the Rays to see how wrong they are. Lance Cormier has been the biggest surprise and is probably the best middle/long reliever in the game, assuming Phil Hughes stays in the bullpen.
Offense: A-
Starting pitching: C
Bullpen: A
New York:
The Yanks seemed to be destined for another 3rd place year had they not seen huge offensive turnarounds on a few fronts. Most critics, along with myself, didn't see much reason for the huge offseason haul of CC and Burnett if they weren't going to do much to fill the gaps in the lineup, but Derek Jeter and Jonny Damon have somehow pulled together great years and shown power that the lineup was severely lacking. Brett Gardner has been a surprise too but management is still obsessed with Melky Cabrera and won't consistently start the clearly superior Gardner. A-rod is slumping, but that's not really that surprising. He's aging, and guys his size don't usually "age well" in baseball. Kinda making that huge contract extension look a little dumb, if he doesn't rebound.
The starting pitching has been about what we expected. Joba struggles every once in a while and a bunch of retards yell about how he should go back to the bullpen. Wang started the season with the worst 3 starts in baseball history but probably has regressed back to the norm a bit. CC and Burnett aren't exactly living up to their huge price tags but they're still solid enough to never be worth complaining about. Bullpen is the real low point with NYY, and Bruney was supposed to come back from the DL and be the savior but he's pretty much shown that he's 2007 Bruney and not 2008 Bruney. Mo is one of the only sure things in the pen but Hughes, again, as long as he stays there, is about as solid as they come.
Offense: A-
Starting pitching: A
Bullpen: C
Boston:
I say this not only because I hate the Red Sox more than I hate Nazis or rapists or Twilight; I say this because I genuinely believe it: the Sox are dead in the water unless they get younger fast. Mike Lowell has been a disappointment this year at the plate, but his defense has deteriorated into nothing. David Ortiz may have come along lately but you can't ignore his lengthy slump to start the season and his overall decline which will inevitably continue as the big guy ages. Jason Bay's defense is awful, JD Drew is another guy who's only going to get older and worse, and Jason Varitek is probably in his last season and the Sox have no replacements.
So, after all that, they're somehow in first place still. A great bullpen is one of the main reasons. Extremely solid pitching by Beckett and Lester, Wakefield getting lucky every time he goes out there, and of the best top-of-the-orders in the game with Pedroia, Bay, and Drew. It's just hard for me to see the Sox staying that way throughout the rest of the season. There has to be some offensive regression somewhere, and I fail to see how Wakefield can get the 2008 Andy Sonnanstine treatment and continue to get 6 runs of support per game. Of the 3 AL East teams, I can't REALISTICALLY see the Sox remaining on top - especially with something like 24 games left against NYY and TBA - but somehow, they'll probably stick it out and stay in first, because Boston always seems to find a way.
Offense: B
Starting Pitching: A
Bullpen: A
Defense Aside from Jacoby Ellsbury: F-
In the end, I can see any combination of finishes understandably. Peter Gammons thinks the Rays are going to win it by 5 games. PECOTA sees the Sox staying put at the top. As much as I hate to believe it, I think Boston does win the division, and the Wild Card will probably be decided by as little as a game or a half. It may sound like a homer pick, but I don't think the Rays finish 3rd. They've got too much talent to continue playing subpar baseball. And it's weird to say that they're playing subpar considering they're one of the 4 best teams in baseball - it's just they have the potential to be SO good, that we expect so much more.
Time to watch the best division in all of sports play out through the dog days.
-Mike
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